Introduction
South Africa stands on the precipice of what could be a transformative electoral season. As the country gears up for its seventh general election under universal adult suffrage in 2024, political pundits, party leaders, and voters alike are taking stock of the nation's shifting allegiances and legislative changes.
Since the end of apartheid in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has dominated the political arena. But a host of emerging factors suggest that the party's hegemony may be under threat.
Here's what you need to know.
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The Backdrop
The ANC suffered significant setbacks in the 2021 municipal elections, falling below 50% in nationwide votes for the first time. Key metros such as Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, and eThekwini saw dwindling support for the ANC, leading to coalition governments spearheaded by the Democratic Alliance (DA) in some cities.
The ANC and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) forged an uneasy coalition in Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni early in 2023, opening the possibility of a similar alliance at a national level. However, opposition parties have united in a bid to prevent what DA leader John Steenhuisen termed a "doomsday coalition," aiming to propose a national coalition if a hung parliament arises.
Electoral System: Navigating Changes
South Africa's parliamentary system uniquely combines the roles of head of state and head of government in the President, adding a distinct flavor to its electoral mechanics.
The National Assembly is composed of 400 members elected through a system of proportional representation with a closed list approach. A pivotal change is set to influence the 2024 elections: the Constitutional Court ruled in 2020 that the Electoral Act must be amended to allow independents to contest national and provincial elections. This could diversify the political landscape, potentially diluting the influence of major parties.
The Challenge: Mobilizing the Youth
As in many democracies, getting younger voters to the polls remains a pressing concern. The challenge for all parties and independent candidates will be to resonate with this disengaged demographic, encouraging them to register and vote.
The Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) is working to streamline the registration process, including options for online registration.
The Final Word
The 2024 general elections are shaping up to be a watershed moment for South Africa. The ANC's historical grip on power is loosening, opposition parties are mobilizing for coalitions, and legislative changes are opening the door for independents.
Amid these shifts, the true test will be in the turnout—particularly among young voters. If South Africa hopes to experience a 'change-election,' it is imperative for disaffected voters to make their voices heard. The stakes are high, and the outcome could shape the nation's political landscape for years to come.